Conflicts and wars of crisis zones 2015/2016 (2)

2016-08-01
Author: János Isaszegi

Maj Gen (Ret.) János Isaszegi: Conflicts and wars of crisis zones 2015/2016 (2)

 

A summary of the events of 2015, and an analytic forecast for 2016 and the following period of time[1]

 

In the first part of the present study the refugee- and migrant wave, which is organised and uncontrolled in a threatening way and continued at the previous pace even in the harsh winter and brutal circumstances in spite of the forecasts, was mentioned among the hotspots and high-risk events affecting the regional and global security in 2015.

 

Unfortunately, it can be stated that 2015 became an unprecedented year in modern history through the tremendous wave of refugees flooding Europe and generated by the warring parties in the Middle East. That was coupled with economic and environmental migrants’ arrival on the Old Continent from Africa and Asia creating challenges which neither Europe nor the European Union nor most member states nor the international border protection system – existing mainly on paper only – were able to cope with thus leaving the community insecure.

 

The World had a chance to get to know and experience the Zarkawi plan on the 7-phase Islamisation[2], providing a fundament for the contemporary ideology and objectives of Jihadists, and the World got profoundly shocked, but as the terrorist acts in Paris in January and November 2015 indicated, it proved to be a “lame duck” and failed to act. What can be expected from 2016? What are our short-term prospects for managing the mentioned conflicts and crises in a (more) successful fashion between 2016 and 2020?

 

In March 2016 the series of three terrorist acts[3] after the EU-Turkey summit meeting and the negotiations in Brussels made it clear even for the most naive people that the crisis-zone conflicts and the wars in the Middle East are not accidental events and are not by or for the local population, therefore the strategies of countering terrorism in Europe must be urgently reconsidered. The “playground” of the great powers has no borders if these states can strengthen their positions in a region through provoking crises and wars, and if through the use of the old principle of “divide and rule” they can have new resources, countries depending on loans from them, or chances to defeat their global or regional rivals for long or forever.

 

The weak or seemingly weak countries, regions, and alliances are rushing to their own destruction irreversibly unless they realise the strategy and process aimed at their elimination, and stand up for their present and future in an active way.

 

To date the events of 2016 indicate that none of the military conflicts or bloody crises affecting Europe directly and brutally may be expected to calm down and settle by 2020. Regardless of the numbers of the frequently mentioned agreements signed in Geneva, Vienna, Washington, Brussels, Riyadh or Minsk, the interests of the parties involved in these wars and conflicts are so very far away from each other’s that a lasting peace in the Middle East is completely impossible to make in the near future even if the great powers forced Bosnia and Herzegovina’s federated model (questioned by too many experts) on Syria or Iraq. Therefore the MENA[4] region remains in the focus as most of the global violent occupations of lands, or “expansion of living space”[5] labelled by some, is generated there.

 

Events classified as serious conflicts of 2016 include:

-         a continuing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, clash, or war affecting already the EU through the latest legal case: sentencing Ukrainian Nadia Savchenko to 22 years imprisonment[6] by a Russian court, and the open armed struggle in Eastern Ukraine with the deployment of both regular and irregular forces, all in spite of the Minsk processes[7];

-         the increasingly serious – sometimes seemingly nonsense – dispute in Central Asia on whether the Caspian water body is a sea or a lake. However, this is not a mere linguistic issue as the rights to exploit and utilise the resources by the relevant countries are differently regulated by international law in the case of a lake and of a sea (and the “Caspian Sea” is a gigantic source of raw materials and natural resources, it is in the global top ten regions in many aspects);

-         another problem among neighbouring countries of the region, e.g. among post-Soviet “-stans”, such as between Tajikistan and Kyrgizstan[8] is the right to control rivers – in some cases the right to alter the flow of the rivers;

-         besides the fighters of the Islamic State the increasing efforts of the Taliban, gaining control over more and more territories in Afghanistan, opposing the current Afghan government, in power since 2014, proving rather weak in spite of the international support;

-         ethnic and religious conflicts in Pakistan clearly symbolised by the horrible suicide attack committed with the use of a powerful explosive device at a Christian festival in a park in Lahore on 27th March 2016. It took the lives of nearly 60 participants of the celebration (including many children) and seriously wounded another 250 people.

 

ANALYSING FUTURE PROSPECTS

In this increasingly critical situation which got shaped by now, when the forecast to 2020 dares anticipate only very slow progress in nearly all crisis regions and war zones at best, it is very important to know the reports on future prospects compiled by the great powers. One of these documents, prepared in the Department of Defence of the USA in February 2016, analyses the challenges and opportunities, provides a detailed strategic overview of the policy of countering terrorism, the strong and balanced deterrence policy towards Russia, the operational arrangements in the Asia and Pacific region, the more relaxed but controlled relations to Iran, the issues of electronic warfare, the review of military strategies, smart defence, more successful technological innovations, and last but not least the problems of the future armed forces.[9]

 

In my opinion 2016 will be mainly about the refugee/migration crisis – in spite of all the above points – and about the security of the target continent, Europe, (or to be more realistic, about the lack of security, about the pre-planned and controlled, managed, and threatening migration and the proved increase of the relating increase of crime and terror). This is happening despite the agreements made in Brussels on March 2016 because some points of the EU-Turkey agreement will be hard to implement in the near future due to the tough demands of the Turkish leadership while the migration crisis is growing into a humanitarian (human) disaster, see the “lager” at Idomeni on the Greek-Macedonian border.

 

Most of the experts’ analyses highlight the fact that the irresponsible “invitation” statements made by the leaders of some European great powers are leading not only to the increase of security threats, neglect of stable social institutions and values, but also to the human disaster of many misled, miserable immigrants. Sooner or later many people may bring up the suspicions of committing crimes against humanity, just like 20 years after the events in Bosnia (e.g. the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands, sentenced Radovan Karajic to 40 years in prison in the first instance), or against state leaders 15 years after the 1999 Kosovo events, or the 2003 invasion of Iraq in 2015, ...

 

The Cold War type conflicts and proxy (now called client) wars[10] among global and regional great powers seem to be continuing, although Putin’s 14th March 2016 statement on the 15th March beginning of the withdrawal of major elements of the Russian forces in Syria made many expert wonder about the reasons and consequences.

 

Continuing the first part of the present study I analyse the security policy situation in several significant crisis regions among others through reviewing issues like the relations between refugees / migrants and terror-migration, the causes, originators, and consequences of prolonged crises and wars, the particular events and backgrounds of violence, wrecking everyone and everything. Due to the extraordinary events in the crisis zones and in some military conflicts in the past weeks I provide an overview of certain war-torn regions and envisage the foreseeable developments in the near future.

 

REFUGEE / MIGRANT CRISIS, TERROR-MIGRATION, MIGRATION, ORGANISED EXPANSION

 

“For several years Europe has been experiencing a so called mixed migration wave, which means that some of the people arriving here come from crisis zones ravaged by armed conflicts, therefore they may definitely need international protection. However, there are others – they make up the majority – who leave their countries due to poverty, in quest for better life that is with their families they belong to the category of economic migrants,” said dr Zsuzsanna Végh, Director General of the Immigration Office in an interview to the Home Office Journal (Belügyi Szemle).[11]

 

To date 3-4% of the World’s population (7.14 billion people in late 2015) lives beyond the borders of their native countries, that is nearly 250 million persons. The historic trends of the 19th century, when people left Europe as a consequence of failed liberation wars (e.g. after the War of Independence in 1849 the escape of Hungarians to Turkey, Italy, or America) changed and from the Europe of the 20th century millions fled or migrated mainly to North- and South America, Australia, and South Africa (including millions of Hungarians again).

 

At the same time, to a great extent as a backlash of the earlier colonisation process and as a result of the so called postcolonial migration masses of immigrants arrived in France from the north of Africa, in the United Kingdom mainly from India and Pakistan, in Portugal from Angola and Mozambique, in Spain from Central- and South-America, in Belgium from Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria, and the Netherlands from the islands of the Far East and Indonesia.[12]

 

Germany, struggling with huge economic and social challenges stemming from the reunification, received millions of war then economic refugees mainly from two regions: from the Middle East, particularly Turkey, 3-4 millions of Turks leaving both their country and families behind, and from the Balkans (at first from Bosnia and Herzegovina, then from, Macedonia, Albania, finally from the end of the decade from Kosovo), which was at war after the early 1990s.

 

While the escape from war zones is as understandable and justified as the humane response to that, the refugees’ selective attitude (“I want to settle down in this country and nowhere else”) experienced from economic migrants (fleeing not from a war or dictatorship) is unacceptable during the refugee crisis.

 

During the migration and refugee crisis of 2015-16 both the transit and target countries were forced to face previously unprecedented developments generated by masses coming from the Middle East, Asia, and Africa in Europe:

-         the relevant government offices have been lagging behind in processing refugee status requests (this significant slowness can be experienced in the case of the Greek offices too);

-         both the Schengen and Dublin systems fail or work at a very poor standards (ironically, non-Schengen Macedonia proves to be more efficient than certain Shengen EU member states);

-         the system of refoulment is legally not sufficiently arranged, inefficient, and the implementation does not guarantee the exclusion of a repeated asylum seeking or the reception of the returned persons in their native countries (e.g. Pakistani officials have repeatedly declared that in spite of the EU-Turkey agreement Pakistan would not receive any returned asylum seekers).

 

Due to the events of the past years of the 21st century we have to face a new phenomenon: the so called terror-migration. It is a process which may be determined as a campaign to occupy territories it is an operation aimed at destroying societies and disintegrating state structures both in the short and long terms. Europe, and we, Hungarians, have had first-hand experience about this issue since the autumn of 2015.

 

“The movement of people from one place to another for the purpose of taking up permanent or semi-permanent residence. In their new country the immigrants usually try to legalise their status, therefore they wish to obtain work permit then citizenship” this is how an on-line encyclopaedia defines migration.

 

“Migration is a movement of peoples, present in all ages of human history, during which populations move and temporarily or permanently change their area of settlement.”[13] That is, migration has been present in history since the birth of human race. “During international migration not only people but customs, myths, standards, tastes, and objects, that is complex cultures, are on the move.”[14]

 

Terror-migration, however, is a completely new development. One of its symptoms is mass. Remember the mass scenes at the violent events at the Röszke border station in September 2015, then the masses of uncontrolled and unidentified people moving westward along the temporary border fence. Probably, many people were – if not scared but – distressed by the sight. The troubles get really worrying when a country is flooded by such an enormous mass of people which is impossible to support by the affected country, moreover, or even by the group of nations. The large mass of migrants destabilises the system of state administration established for centuries, which is known to be unable to respond, can even be classified as outdated, yet existing. Law and order turns impossible to maintain, the medical, social, and education systems – in fact the state and social systems – collapse.

 

“ ... before there was a wave of real refugees but by now it has become typical that criminals, terrorists, and foreign fighters infiltrate Europe among the asylum seekers. ... with the wave of migrants an increasing number of foreign fighters and terrorists arrive in Europe, who exploit the migration crisis for their own purposes, the terrorist organisation Islamic State infiltrates and spreads inside the refugee wave like a tumour” said General Philip Breedlove, current Commander-in-Chief of the NATO forces in Europe[15], in the Armed Forces Committee of the American Senate on 1st March 2016.[16]

 

It is the terrorist organisation about which Hungarian minister of defence István Simicskó wrote in the preface of a book by several authors on security policy that the Islamic State is a novelty among the multitude of terrorist organisations so far. It acts like a state, spreads locally, but has global ambitions with regard large parts of the World – currently Europe in the first place. It presents a threat to Europe as its terrorist cells are present in the continent and efficient at recruiting new followers.[17]

 

Besides the innocent, miserable children, mothers with little children and babies, and elderly people in the mass of refugees and economic migrants a very important feature must be spotted: that military-like level of organisation, which is a main attribute of the controlled terror-migration. As early as the autumn of 2015 the observers of the process realised that most migrants (roughly 70%) were men of military service age with sporty build, and uniform, disciplined behaviour. They were well equipped with smart phones, instructions, and marched in a clearly organised fashion. They intimidated the local communities with this marching itself and do not even wanted to seem friendly. They launched actions to break through the police cordon. “Leaders” appeared there, who commanded the attacks with a loudspeaker, threatened the police, and indirectly – through the media – the entire society. All that was pre-planned and prepared, which indicates that terror-migration needs long years or even decades of preparation.

 

Jihadism, radicalism, and terrorism are organically connected to this process both in the present and even more so in the near future. “The three expressions, Jihadism, radicalism, and terrorism are horrible – with less known contents – sometimes controversial, not necessarily interconnected phenomena of our present, which pose a significant level of threat to local, regional, and often global security. They characterise mainly crisis zones but their impact far exceeds the borders of a country or region, regardless of their level of economic development, social environment, or religion. ... In its religious interpretation Jihadism does not involve any threat but if the religion is misinterpreted or utilised for political purposes, the phenomenon receives different meaning. Radicalism in itself is not always dangerous; moreover, threat is not its integral part. However, this is not true for terrorism as it is violence against innocent people, applied for political reasons. The worst thing is when the three factors appear together, reinforce each other and appear as terrorism.”[18]

 

The chaos, ethnic and religious clashes, and the growing strength of terrorist organisations raging in the Balkans, in the Middle East, Central Asia, and in African countries became direct consequences of a globally controlled mass migration managed for financial or ideological considerations. By now the seven-stage plan of former head of Al Qaeda in Iraq Abu Musab az Zarkawi, second generation Al Qaeda lieutenant, on the conquest of the western world has become widely known. The plan was made in 1996, was publicised in 2005, and it practically determines the violent spread of Islam on the Christian world too. Certain parts of the plan, such as forcing the western powers into a war, provoking a civil war in Syria, or flooding Europe with refugees with well organised control, seem to be working. The World, which likes conspiracy theories, studies, analyses, and discusses the reality and genuine contents of the seven-stage Islamisation, that is makes efforts to match the events with the scenario.

 

The largest security risk is presented by the multiplication of terrorist acts after 2002 (attacks in Madrid and London, at the Boston marathon, Beslan hostage crisis, and the Paris attacks in January and November 2015), coupled with the ever growing wave of migrants using the Balkans (in spite of the blocking of the illegal Balkans migration route) and the Italian route. There is no room for illusions; mass migration is not the result of the security crisis of a single country or region.

 

Another, even more serious, problem has appeared mainly due to the climate change. Because of desertification and the decrease of water resources large masses of people will leave Africa, and Europe will be their only option. The fact should not be forgotten that 120 years ago the population of Africa was around 100 million, and it has grown over 1 billion by now and in the analysis-based opinion of experts within one generation it will reach 1.5 billion. At the same time the access to drinking water and food is not developing on the continent and employment or the living conditions are further deteriorating. It is most unfortunate that the West (and the East!) perceives the developments in Africa through the prism of their own interests, which makes their responses to crisis situations extremely slow and delayed.

 

International, national, and regional security organisations and bodies should reconsider the current, standard practice of crisis management and conflict management, they should renew the comprehensive system of crisis prevention, including the practice of international responsibility and law.

 

The 22nd March 2016 triple explosion in Brussels bring up the question how and with whom (with the involvement of immigrants living in Belgium for many years and recently arrived migrants) could one of the terrorist cells of the Islamic State organise and carry out such actions at the international airport in the vicinity of the NATO Headquarters then at the Maelbeek underground station near the Brussels complexes housing the main organisational elements of the European Union, all in spite of the vows made by national security and secret services. It also needs to be found out why in multicultural and divided Belgium, suffering from frequent governmental crises, in its capital housing the central elements of the EU and NATO with – in principle – airtight protection and defence, the Islamist terrorist commando hit.

 

Leading researcher of terrorism at the Royal Military Academy of Belgium Didier Leroy, assistant professor of the Free University of Brussels provides a lengthy analysis of the issues including why Belgium got in the focus of the European Jihad of the Islamic State, and why it is so difficult to manage the problem for the Belgian authorities. In his opinion „At the level of the modus operandi, we find several common features shared by the French and Belgian commandos: relatively small cells of determined individuals hitting as many „soft” (civilian) targets as possible.”[19].

 

In his analysis the expert states also that the Belgian security services did not have sufficient resources for the 24-hour tracking of 1,000 persons living in Belgium and presenting a “potential threat”. This is very similar to the situation in France and is completely in line with the opinions of Hungarian national security experts, who also emphasise that tracking a single target person would require the work of a dozen of specially prepared and equipped experts, which is simply impossible in current Europe.

 

After the 22nd March terrorist acts in Brussels minister of the interior of Belgium Jan Jambon declared that relative to the number of population Belgium has the most Jihadists:

-         the number of the so called Belgian “foreign fighters” is around 470 (as of January 2016) who joined the Islamic State for training and combat, primarily in Syria and secondarily in Iraq;

-         currently some 190 of them are still fighting in Syria and Iraq on the territories under the control of the Islamic State (which decreased by more than 20% in one year as a result of the growing attacks of the Syrian and Iraqi national forces, the Russian and US-led coalition air strikes, the actions by the Kurdish Peshmerga warriors, and the operations of the forces countering the Islamic State in Iraq) and 130 persons returned in Belgium.[20]

 

According to analyses the Abdeslam and Abaaoud brothers, known from the organisers and executioners of the terrorist acts in Paris and Brussels, have Belgian-Moroccan roots and there is an 80% Moroccan majority in the list of 470 volunteers of the Islamic State. In Belgium, with a population of 11.2 million, Moroccans comprise the largest ethnic minority that arrived in the country as economic migrants in the 1960s and 70s. Now their number exceeds 500,000, most of them follow puritan Sunni Wahhabite traditions (Salaphites). Regardless of the fact that the Abdeslams and Abaaouds belong to second or third generation immigrants they are typically unable to integrate into Belgian society and since they are not considered as Moroccan either it is easy to lure them into a larger community with its promises.

 

It is not uninteresting to compare this situation with the attitude of the also significant Turkish minority in Belgium. They also follow the Sunni Islam, yet hardly any of them are registered in the list of dangerous persons compiled by the Belgian authorities. According to the information from the Belgian services none of them joined the Islamic State either.

 

At the same time, experts analysing the personalities of the persons known for joining Islamist extremists or committing terrorist acts highlight another interesting fact: there are more and more indications that intense psychological impact experienced within the family at young age may shape the receptiveness to violent acts later. Besides the parents’ influence a significant impact stems from taking siblings as role models and from participating in actions with them, following them: in the 2013 terrorist act at the Boston Marathon the Tsarnayev brothers from the Caucasus Mountains, in the January 2015 attack against Charlie Hebdo in Paris the Kouachi brothers of Yemeni descent, in the November 2015 attack in Paris the Abdeslam brothers, and finally in the March 2016 terrorist acts in Brussels the el-Barkaoui brothers represented this process.  

 

GROWING HOTSPOTS IN THE FAR EAST AND EAST ASIA: THE APPEARENCE OF THE ISLAMIC STATE AND THE RENEWED WAR RHETORIC AND MISSILE THREAT OF THE LEADER OF NORTH KOREA

 

The countries of the Far East are also affected by the global processes: in the recent past the Islamic State committed terrorist acts signalling to Japan that its citizens cannot stay away from the events of Islamist Jihad and terrorism. The Japanese man beheaded by the murderers of the Islamic State in January 2015, followed by another one who went to the Middle East as a war correspondent to negotiate with the leaders of the terrorist organisations and save his friend and was also beheaded, will always be remembered. That was a declaration of war, a series of crimes against humanity. However, Japanese state information revealed that the Islamic State has already had some Japanese followers too, moreover, those willing to participate in armed combat in 2016 have already joined the terrorist organisation. Another tragic fact is that in November 2003 two Japanese soldiers serving in Iraq[21] were killed by terrorists, most probably of Abu Musab az-Zarkawi, then leader of the Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI).

 

Another event in East Asia, also of 2015, was the Islamists’ attack against the Tripoli embassy of South Korea in April in which several members of the security personnel got killed.

 

The increasingly forceful military preparations and rhetoric of North Korea in 2015 and its even more aggressive tone in 2016 are similarly worrying. These are underpinned with launches of “satellite” ballistic rockets, and short range missiles launched towards Japan, which splashed into the sea. It should, however, be remembered that that “soon” North Korea is to conduct experiments with nuclear charges and ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads, as it was declared by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on 15th March 2016 according to North Korean news agency KCNA. The declaration was followed by threatening statements and messages to the World, like:

-         soon experimental explosions are to be conducted in order to further increase the reliability of the nuclear arsenal;

-         several types of ballistic missiles will be involved in the experimental launches, which are capable of delivering nuclear warheads;

-         the North Korean armed forces are ready to deliver a pre-emptive strike and liberate South Korea.

 

It is no coincidence that in response to the North Korean sabre rattling South Korea and the USA conduct their annual military exercises with the aim of both demonstration and deterrence in the sensitive region of the Korean Peninsula. At the same time more and more analysts come to the opinion that the North Korean leader continues these preparations in order to cover the grave problems in his country and may launch an offensive against South Korea before 2020 as he is aware of the fact that the chances of a pre-emptive strike against North Korea are rather slim because of the large number of civil casualties and the resulting international uproar.

 

An analysis of the eruption of a regional conflict situation with the involvement of China, and that of the crises expected in the near future would require an independent study because of the importance and magnitude of the issue.

 

VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM IN THE SECOND DECADE OF THE 21ST CENTURY: AILING AND LEADERLESS AL QAEDA, JIHADIST ORGANISATION ISLAMIC STATE STRIVING FOR STATEHOOD (TOO), AND THEIR FRANCHISERS

 

Although no statistics of the official GTI indices[22] have been published yet, anyone interested in the events could have compiled their own continuously update statistics on the basis of the closeness of the terrorist acts and due to their frequently real-time broadcasts. The tragic beginning of 2015 (with the 7th January terrorist attack against the satirical magazine in Paris) clearly matched the brutal end of the same year (bombings and massacre in Paris on 23rd November with a death toll over 130, and a wave of violence in Cologne and roughly a dozen other towns on New Year’s Eve ... )

 

This refers to a part of Europe only, but the general picture outside the continent is not any better: Africa was shaken by the destruction committed by the “Five”[23], in Iraq the Shiite – Sunni conflict generated further terrorist attacks killing tens of thousands of people. In Afghanistan not only the ailing Al Qaeda and the more and more powerful Taliban but also the Islamic State committed infamous terrorist acts. Latter targeted Afghanistan, at war for four decades by now, for recruitment opportunities and also for gaining control of the opium business.

 

Unfortunately, the MENA-countries, that is the states in the Middle East and North Africa, could not have a rest in 2015 either. In Tunisia a history museum and a tourist resort were attacked while in Egypt an airplane with Russian holidaymakers returning home was bombed – among other things – for which the responsibility was claimed by the Islamic State.

 

In Yemen, where the Saudi-led Sunni coalition had advantage over the Shiite Houthi rebels, it was the Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the laughing third party, which regularly carried out terrorist acts, particularly in the vicinity of seaports, as though indicating that the frequently referred to Arab Spring had such side effects too.

 

Unfortunately the trend of the past decades went on: the number of terrorist acts and the destruction caused by them increased at global levels. Similarly to the past years a significant proportion of terrorist activities affected four countries which have always been in the top ten of the GTI lists: Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Most probably they will keep their positions as far as the terrorist incidents of the 2016-2020 period of time are concerned.

 

Iraq, with its so rich history and culture, may open a new chapter concerning the number of terrorist attacks and that of the casualties since 2012 (after the December 2011 withdrawal of the American troops from the country), as the hatred between Sunnis and Shiites did not decrease and Arabs kill Arabs often exploiting even their religious holidays and funerals[24]. Then, if money, oil, or power is at stake, the hatred between Arabs and Kurds also rises high, taking thousands of lives like in the destruction caused by the mutual bombings in 2015. In this killing campaign – which is beyond the ability of the incompetent Iraqi government, isolated due to its short-sightedness, to track, let alone impede or prevent – Al Qaeda in Iraq, regarded good at comebacks by international experts, got increasingly involved. It was closely followed by the Islamic State representing the third wave of Jihadism, a terrorist organisation known for its destruction, ruthlessness, recruitment and maintenance of its army of child soldiers.[25]

 

Most experts researching terrorism, the war on terror, and its theoretical and practical issues agree that the relating most urgent tasks include a more successful action against funding terrorism, and the sharing and more comprehensive exploiting of intelligence on terrorism and terrorist organisations among the allied and/or coalition partners.  

 

For over two decades it has been well known about terrorist organisation Al Qaeda (Base), established by Osama bin Laden, that the organisation is provided huge profits by the opium production, earning billions from European drug addicts. Similarly it is obvious that since its appearance the Islamic State (operating in fact more like a pseudo-state) has been exploiting all means to fund itself, besides a hard-to-prove support system. Thus, among other things, the Islamic State (and also the terrorist organisations either yielding to the Islamic State or just franchising[26] it) applies various ways of making illegal money, generating funds on the territories under its control, which include:

-         illegal sale of raw material at its disposal in the region (e.g. oil);

-         trade in humans and human organs;

-         taxation;

-         distribution of funds generated through cooperation with human-trafficking networks;

-         use of trafficking in treasures and illegal drugs;

-         ransom money from hostage taking actions;

-         use of the newest invention of the 21st century, the bitcoin, the virtual money;

-         other activities which provide the Islamic State with a USD 80-100 million total income per month.

 

“I hope that we managed to provide the present researchers and experts with information of sufficient amount and quality relating to one of the most important fields of countering terrorism – the disclosure of financial sources available for terrorists – so that further research programs and dialogue could be launched among the involved parties” said Major General János Béres, Deputy Director-General of the Military National Security Service at conference “Opportunities of countering financing terrorism”, held at the National University of Public Service on 17th March 2016.[27]

 

The European Counter Terrorism Centre (ECTC), established in November 2015 after the Paris terrorist acts conducts operations besides the above discussed funding issues for the more efficient use of intelligence, which is another very important issue.

 

(The end)

 

 


 

LITERATURE

 

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Kiss, Álmos Péter: Háború a nép között. Esettanulmányok a negyedik generációs hadviselés történetéből. Zrínyi Kiadó, Budapest, 2016.

Leroy, Didier: Why Belgium? http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/03/24/brussels-attacks-isis-why-belgium/?printp

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Tarrósy, István – Glied, Viktor – Keserű, Dávid (Ed.): Új népvándorlás. Migráció a 21. században Afrika és Európa között. Publikon Kiadó, Pécs, 2011.

Thüringer, Barbara: Ahol tényleg érték a víz: lövöldözés egy folyó elterelése miatt. MTI, 10th July 2014  

Violent Extremism & Modern Conflict / Russia’s Exported Jihad / Attack on Cote d’Ivoire. Crisis Group Weekly Update, New Field Reporting & Analysis. The Week of 11-18 March 2016. Source: Crisis Group <notification@crisisgroup.org>.

Wasserbly, Daniel: US expects larger role in Iraqi effort to retake Mosul. IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly, 9 March 2016.

http:// www.atv.hu/kulfold/20150125-mi-all-az-al-kaida-mesterterveben

http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12081086@egNews&_print=true Statement of the Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Lieutenant General Sergei Rudskoy, 21.03.2016. rusmil-office@list.ru

http://inforadio.hu/hir/tudositoink/radioaktiv-bomba-robbantasara-keszultek-a-brusszeli-merenylok-808362

http://www.honvedelem.hu/cikk/56186, A terrorizmus elleni küzdelem legfontosabb színtere

http://www.honvedelem.hu/cikk/56228, Átfogó hadgyakorlatba kezd Észak-Korea

http://www.honvedelem.hu/cikk/56260, Az orosz bíróság 22 évi szabadságvesztésre ítélte Szavcsenko ukrán pilótanőt

http://www.honvedelem.hu/cikk/56302, Juncker: a terroristák közülünk valók

http://www.honvedelem.hu/cikk/56304, Előtérben Magyarország biztonsága

 

 

 

 



[1] The first part of the study provides an analysis of the conflicts in Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, the Balkans, and Africa, and a short overview of the issue of Jihadist terrorist organisation Islamic State.

[2] www.atv.hu/kulfold/20150125-mi-all-az-al-kaida-mesterterveben (Accessed: 26. 01. 2015.) An account on it published by Jordanian journalist Fouad Husseini in his book Al-Zarqawi: “The Second Generation of the Al-Qaeda”, published in 2005.

[3] At 08:00 22nd March 2016 a powerful explosive device went off at the departure terminal then a few seconds later at the exit of Zaventem airport of the Belgian capital, followed by another one on the underground train at underground station Moanbeek. The casualty list is nearly 40 killed and more than 350 injured and wounded so far.

[4] Middle East and North Africa

[5] The wording “What is expansion of living space for them is loss of living space for us” to describe the phenomenon was used by the Prime Minister of Hungary in his speech delivered at the anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution of 15th March 1848. Source: Metropol/MTI, Metropol Budapest, 16th March 2016, p. 2.

[6] http://www.honvedelem.hu/cikk/56260 (Accessed: 23. 03. 2016.)

[7] General Directorate of Military Cooperation and Peacekeeping Operations of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Briefing on the situation in the South-East of Ukraine (10. 03 – 15. 03. 2016) and Joint Operation Headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: The facts of the presence of mercenaries, armament and military equipment of Russian Federation Armed Forces on the territory of Ukraine, - a briefing in the Office of the Defence Attaché of Ukraine in Budapest, Budapest, 17th March 2016.

[8] Thüringer, Barbara: Ahol tényleg érték a víz: lövöldözés egy folyó elterelése miatt. MTI, 2014. 10th July.

[9] Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, Department of Defense, USA (2016): 2017 – Defense Posture Statement: Taking the Long View, Investing for the Future. February 2016, DOD USA, dodnews@subscriptions.dod.mil (Accessed: 15. 03. 2016.)

[10] Proxy wars are armed conflicts between two nations where neither country directly engages the other. Such a war was waged between North and South Vietnam, where the support in manpower, military equipment and materiel provided by the USA and the USSR was continuous and permanent.

[11] Interview with dr. Zsuzsanna Végh: „Abban nem hihetünk, hogy a migrációs nyomás enyhülni fog…” Belügyi Szemle, Issue 2016/1. pp. 9–15.

[12] Tarrósy, István – Glied, Viktor – Keserű, Dávid (szerk.): Új népvándorlás. Migráció a 21. században Afrika és Európa között. Publikon Kiadó, Pécs, 2011.

[13] Póczik, Szilveszter: Nemzetközi migráció – biztonságpolitikai, rendészeti aspektusok. In: Új népvándorlás. p. 35.

[14] Szilasi, Ildikó Hermina: Matonge, egy kongói „migráns-világ” Brüsszelben. In: Új népvándorlás. p. 169.

[15] The decision was approved on delegating four-star General Curtis Scaparotti to the position of the Commander of the NATO European forces, who is also tasked with the post of the Commander of the America Forces in Europe. At the time of completing the present study General Scaparotti served in South Korea as Commander of the American forces there and as the Commander of the UN Mission in the Korean Peninsula.

[16] http.//www.honvedelem.hu/cikk/55915 (Accessed: 03. 03. 2016.)

[17] Besenyő, János – Prantner, Zoltán – Speidl, Bianka – Vogel, Dávid: Az Iszlám Állam – Terrorizmus 2.0 Történet, ideológia, propaganda. Kossuth Kiadó, Budapest, 2016.

[18] Kis-Benedek, József: Dzsihadizmus, radikalizmus, terrorizmus. Zrínyi Kiadó, Budapest, 2016, 4. (To be published, used here courtesy to the author.)

[19] „At the level of the modus operandi, we find several common features shared by the French and Belgian commandos: relatively small cells of determined individuals hitting as many „soft” (civilian) targets as possible.”

[20] Ibid.

[21] 2003 was the first time since the Second World War that Japan was requested – by the United States of America –to deploy a contingent in the stabilisation operations following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. The survey team led by Kazushige Izumi arrived at the Baghdad HQ of the US-led coalition forces, where I had the chance to meet the delegation as director of coalition operations. One month later the Japanese military contingent also arrived in which two of our comrades – who got murdered later – served as Liaison Officers.

[22] Global Terrorism Index. Every year an American and an Australian groups of analysts process the violent events of the past years at global scale and publicise their reports.

[23] In Nigeria Boko Haram, in the Maghreb the local Al Qaeda, in Uganda the Lord’s Resistance Army, in Somalia the al-Shabaab, in Egypt and Libya the extremist organisations linked to the Islamic State.

[24] Isaszegi, János: Irak, 2014: ismét háborúba süllyedve. Társadalom és honvédelem, XVIII. évfolyam, 2014/1–2. ISSN 1419-7293. pp. 12–28.

[25] Dizseri, Ágnes: Gyermekkatonák az Iszlám Állam és az Úr Ellenállási Hadseregében. Thesis work at a foreign relations further training course. Károli Gáspár University of the Reformed Church in Hungary, December 2015. (The author of the present study was both a teacher and official opponent of the author of the thesis work.)

[26] Franchise: a practice of the right to completely use the business model and brand of an organisation or company for a prescribed period of time.

[27] http://www.honvedelem.hu/cikk/56186 (Accessed: 18. 03. 2016.)